JAEQM

This study examined the impact of COVID-19 on food prices in Eswatini using monthly data (2014–2022) from FAOSTAT and COVID-19 data from Our World in Data. Stationarity was tested with the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, and the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag and Error Correction models were applied. Four food items were analysed: maize meal, rice, brown bread, and white bread. The findings show that in the short run, the stringency index reduced white bread prices, while COVID-19 severity increased them. In the long run, none of the explanatory variables were statistically significant, and the prices of maize meal, rice, and brown bread showed no short- or long-run relationship with the COVID-19 variables. Based on the white bread results, it is recommended that the Eswatini government work closely with local producers and retailers to design measures that manage public health risks without causing major market disruptions.

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