This study analyzed Total Factor Productivity (TFP) dynamics in Nigeria’s agriculture (crops and livestock), 1981–2021, using descriptive statistics, ADF tests, and ARDL models to assess macroeconomic (government spending, inflation) and climatic (precipitation) effects. Crop TFP was far more volatile (SD 28.62) than livestock (SD 0.0074). ARDL bounds tests showed no long-run cointegration, as F-statistics for aggregate (3.812), crops (2.856), and livestock (3.722) were below the 5% upper bound (4.354). In the short run, inflation raised crop TFP but reduced livestock productivity, while government spending was insignificant. Lagged precipitation significantly increased livestock TFP, which also showed strong persistence. Findings stress subsector-specific policies, climate adaptation, and more effective public spending.
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