Price stability is a core objective of monetary policy, essential to protecting both producers and consumers. Accurate forecasting plays a critical role in guiding fiscal and monetary tools to achieve this goal. This study employs the ARIMA model to forecast maize prices in Nigeria from 2024 to 2026, using secondary monthly data from January 2017 to March 2024, sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics. Data analysis was conducted using R software, which identified ARIMA(0,2,1) as the best-fitting model based on the lowest AIC and BIC values. Results indicate an overall upward trend, with maize prices projected to rise by approximately 10% by 2026 compared to 2017, despite observable price volatility in the 26-step ahead forecast. These findings suggest the need for Nigeria’s monetary policy committee to strengthen trade liberalization and food security measures while effectively applying monetary and fiscal policies to curb inflationary pressures.
Downloads: 5
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to comment!